Charles Grant speaks to Sophie Claudet of Euronews on the new proposal allowing EU citizens that have been living in the UK for five years to stay (from 08.45).
Charles Grant, thanks for being with us. Now we’ve seen that Theresa May has put a new proposal on the table allowing EU citizens that have been living in the UK for five years to stay. Does it mean she is softening her stance somehow?
Charles Grant, Director of the Centre for European Reform
Her line is for a hard Brexit. The particular proposals she’s made on the rights of EU citizens in Britain were to be expected, they were roughly in line with what the EU thought would happen. It’s not enough for the EU, but as Angela Merkel said, it is a start and I think that they will negotiate on that basis. The gap between the two sides is not a million miles and I do think this will be one of the easier issues to resolve because on both sides, for the three million EU citizens living in Britain and the one or two million Brits living in the EU, there are such strong reasons to get the deal done, to reassure these people who are very, very nervous about their futures. So I would predict in a month or two there will be some resolution.
Sophie Claudet
Now, how about the UK’s grim looking economic forecast?
Charles Grant
The impact of the 15 percent devaluation of the pound is pushing inflation up, foreign investment is diminishing somewhat, there has been a lot of consumption driven by people spending but it cannot go on forever, and I think we are now expecting an economic downturn. And in particular, as the details emerge in the Brexit negotiations of the kind of relationship that we will have in future with the EU, less closely tied economically in the past, business confidence will suffer, that will affect consumer confidence, and I think there is a downturn coming. To what extent that leads public opinion to regret the decision to leave the EU is an open question.
Sophie Claudet
How do you see trade flows evolving between the EU and the UK and are we heading towards a hard or a soft Brexit?
Charles Grant
I think certainly we are heading for a fairly hard Brexit, but the general election result which has weakened Mrs May and strengthened the more moderate forces in parliament means it will be softer and more moderate than that she initially envisaged. We will certainly have fairly modest restrictions on immigration, we may be less dogmatic in rejecting a role for the European Court of Justice and we may perhaps stay in the EU custom’s union.”
Sophie Claudet
We’ve seen that Theresa May has offered more than one billion euros to Northern Ireland as part of her deal with the DUP (Democratic Unionist Party). Could separatists still push for reigniting Ireland?
Charles Grant
Because the DUP, which is one strong community in Northern Ireland, is now aligned with the British government, how can the British government play the role of being a neutral arbiter in the peace process in Northern Ireland which is still a problem, there are still many difficult issues to overcome in Northern Ireland. So it may perhaps strengthen feeling amongst the Catholics that staying in the UK is a bad deal, that they are not being well treated, that their enemies in the DUP are close to the British government now, so it could perhaps ignite some nationalist feeling. But as far as I can see, most people in the north of Ireland and indeed most people in the south, do not actually want a united Ireland at the moment. That would be a step too far for most of them and just too complicated at the current time.
Sophie Claudet
Do you think that as far as Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland are concerned, are we heading for a hard border or something in between?
Grant: If Britain leaves the EU customs union there will have to be customs controls on the borders between the EU and the UK, including between the north of Ireland and the south of Ireland, borders to check for duties being paid, for forms being filled in, for rules of origin to be respected.
Sophie Claudet
Do you think in the particular context of Ireland it could lead to renewed tension or even violence?
Charles Grant
Possibly yes, because if you have these customs controls going back to the border that will be a provocation to the extreme nationalists who will want a united Ireland. And if the border posts go up, I know there is a fear in Dublin that terrorists could burn them down or blow them up, which is a very strong reason not to have border posts, which is another reason for Britain to stay in a customs union with the EU. My friends in Dublin are very worried about Britain leaving the customs union because of the impact it could have on the peace process in Northern Ireland.
