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BBC Newsnight: Michel Barnier appointed chief Brexit negotiator

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Charles Grant speaks to BBC Newsnight about the appointment of Michel Barnier as the European Commission's chief Brexit negotiator.

(03:33)

27 July 2016

Clone of Invitation to CER/Open Europe fringe event at the Conservative party conference: 'Testing the limits of the post-Brexit deal', 3 October 2016

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19:30-21:00
Liverpool

Speakers include:
kate, Member of Parliament for Walton and Esher
Detlef Seif, Member of the German Parliament, CDU
Raoul Ruparel, Co-director, Open Europe
Chair: MP Director, Centre for European Reform

Refreshments will be provided
Please note that the fringe event is being held in the secure zone and you will need a pass to attend

@CER_London           #testingBrexit             @OpenEurope

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BBC Newsnight: UK to pay into EU funds after Brexit?

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Charles Grant speaks to Newsnight about Whitehall's plan to keep paying into EU funds after Brexit (from 4.10 mins).

11 October 2016

Tok FM: High Court rozpatruje pozwy przeciwko decyzji premier o wszczęciu procedury

Tok FM: Dlaczego przywódcy Szkocji, Walii i Irlandii Płn. są "sfrustrowani Brexitem"?

Polskie Radio 24: Magazyn Europejski: Trudne rozmowy o Brexicie

Tok FM: Parlament brytyjski będzie musiał przegłosować wyjście z UE

RTVE: Europa abierta - Un año de los atentados de París. ¿Se ha reforzado realmente la seguridad europea?

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The CER's Camino Mortera-Martinez speaks to RTVE.es one year on from the terrorist attacks in Paris.

La Sala Bataclan de París reabre sus puertas con un concierto del cantante Sting un año después de los atentados de París que causaron 130 muertos y 400 heridos. Nos preguntamos en Europa Abierta que ha cambiado en este año en la seguridad europea y si ha mejorado. Le trasladamos la cuestión a Camino Mortera, investigadora del Centro por la Reforma Europea, con sede en Bruselas.

11 November 2016

Tok FM: Chaos wokół Brexitu?

The Wonk: Britain will struggle to make EU migrants 'go home'

Polskie Radio 24: Brexit: Szkocja i Walia mają głos

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The CER's Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska speaks to Polskie Radio 24 about Sthe upreme Court's decision to allow Scottish and Welsh governments to join the court's case.

Szkoccy politycy podkreślają, że rozpoczęcie negocjacji na linii Wielka Brytania-Unia Europejska powinno zostać zaakceptowane nie tylko przez parlament w Westminsterze, ale także przez poszczególne parlamenty w Szkocji, Walii i Irlandii Północnej.

– Istnieje ryzyko, że decyzja Sądu może pokrzyżować plany brytyjskiej premier Theresy May, która chce przeprowadzić całą procedurę Brexitu bez udziału krajowego parlamentu. A tutaj mamy mowę o dodatkowym udziale parlamentów trzech innych krajów – powiedziała Agata Gostyńska z Centre of European Reform.

19 November 2016

NDR: Streitkräfte und Strategien

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The CER's Sophia Besch speaks to German radio on EU defence co-operation, "European Strategic autonomy without the UK will be difficult" (18:42 – 19:15).

05 November 2016

Tok FM: Kto będzie chciał mieć ostatnie słowo w sprawie Brexitu?

CNBC: Polls suggest 'no' vote will prevail in Italian referendum

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The political fallout of a 'no' vote in Italy's reform referendum would be less than it has been made out to be, says Luigi Scazzieri at the Centre for European Reform.

 

01 December 2016

BBC Newsnight: Charles Grant on Boris Johnson's free movement comments

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Charles Grant talks frankly to BBC Newsnight about Boris Johnson's recent free movement comments to EU foreign ministers. (From 23 mins)

02 December 2016

#AskCER: Will Italy have to go to snap elections?

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Matteo Renzi’s resignation yesterday after the referendum defeat does not automatically trigger new elections. Instead, the Italian president Sergio Mattarella will start consultations with party leaders to explore options to form a new government, based on the current composition of the parliament. Mattarella will probably give the mandate to form a new government to an experienced politician such as economics minister Pier Carlo Padoan or Senate President Pietro Grasso.

There are three reasons not to call snap elections. First, there is a wide consensus in parliament that the electoral law for the lower house needs to be amended before new elections can take place. The law was passed under the assumption that the constitutional changes would be approved in yesterday's referendum. Moreover, the electoral law is also under consideration by Italy’s constitutional court, and it is seen as inappropriate to vote before its verdict.

Second, mainstream parties have limited appetite for voting now because of the prospect of a strong showing by the populist 5 Star Movement, which could emerge as the largest party from snap elections. Many smaller parties even fear that they would be completely wiped out.

Third, after the lost referendum, the stock index of Italian banks is down 2 per cent, and Italy's most troubled banks still need to be recapitalised, either by the market or with government funds. The last thing Italian banks need at the moment is another round of uncertainty caused by snap elections. Such high stakes should help convince Italy's mainstream parties to form a new government.

Early elections are still possible, of course, if a new government cannot be formed. If they were held under the current electoral law, the upper house, the Senate, would be elected using a proportional system. In the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house, there would be two rounds of voting unless a party reaches 40 per cent in the first. Polls suggest neither the centre-left Democratic Party nor the 5 Star Movement would reach this threshold. There would then be a runoff between the two most voted parties, and the winner would gain a majority bonus in the lower house, leading to at least 54 per cent of the seats. In the Senate however, they would gain only a share of seats roughly corresponding to their share of the overall vote.

As a result, the winner of the lower house would have a majority of seats, but almost certainly would be unable to gain enough seats in the Senate to form a government alone. (Italian governments need to be approved by both houses.) If the Democratic Party were to emerge as the largest party, a coalition government would be likely. But if instead the 5 Star Movement won the lower house, the likeliest result would be a deadlock and yet another round of elections, as the Movement rejects coalitions.

Luigi Scazzieri is a Clara Marina O'Donnell fellow at the Centre for European Reform.

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#AskCER: Will Italy have to go to snap elections? Luigi Scazzieri answers

EurActiv event: #Brexit50 ranking unveiled in Westminster

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The EurActiv event revealed the 50 most influential people shaping Brexit – the EurActiv #Brexit50 list. CER director Charles Grant was ranked number 45 on the #Brexit 50 list. The event was followed by a panel discussion with policymakers and analysts, including CER research fellow Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska.

The ranking was decided by a panel of UK-EU affairs specialists, with EurActiv readers also invited to suggest names.

06 December 2016

5 News: Interview with Luigi Scazzieri on the Italian referendum (1:12)

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With the Brexit vote and Donald Trump's victory, 2016 has been quite the year for political upheaval. Now - it's Italy's turn, with the Prime Minister's plans to reform the country's constitution heavily defeated in a referendum. It could cause yet more turmoil for the EU - but the result has left many Italians overjoyed.

06 December 2016

CER podcast series: The economics of populism, episode four

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In this episode, Marcel Fratzscher and Ryan Avent discuss ‘Is inequality behind the rise in populism?’

In November 2016, the CER took more than 50 of Europe's top economists to Ditchley Park in Oxfordshire for a conference on 'The economics of populism’. This CER podcast series offers an insight into the discussions of that weekend.

Christian Odendahl, Marcel Fratzscher, Ryan Avent
07 December 2016

#AskCER: Has the ECB started to tighten the screws?

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Given the continued weakness of inflation, the ECB was always going to extend its bond purchasing programme (‘quantitative easing’ or QE) beyond its previously scheduled end in March 2017. The question was how, exactly, the ECB would extend it. The ‘doves’ in favour of continued expansionary monetary policy hoped for a clear signal that the ECB was not going to rein in the programme until inflation was safely back at the target level of 2 per cent. The ‘hawks’ critical of the ECB’s expansionary stance hoped that it would make clear that the end of QE was nigh. Today the ECB decided to give a mixed signal.

Bond purchases will be reduced to €60 billion a month (from €80 billion) by April 2017, but run until December 2017, longer than planned. The cut in monthly bond purchases is the signal that the hawks had hoped for, even though the extension until December 2017 is longer than they would like.

But Mario Draghi also gave three dovish signals. First, the ECB decided to include bonds whose yields are below the ECB deposit rate; that is, the rate the central bank pays on banks’ excess reserves at the ECB. So far, the ECB had excluded buying such bonds for fear of being attacked for making ‘losses’ on its purchases. (That criticism was always economically questionable, but the ECB in the past decided it was not worth the hassle.) With this restriction gone, the ECB can extend QE, as it was running out of German bonds to buy (many short-term bonds of ‘safe’ countries have a negative yield, some below the deposit rate). As a result of that announcement, yields on short-term bonds fell, taking the euro down with them.

Second, the ECB published its revised economic forecasts. While there was no real change to its projections for 2017 and 2018, its first forecast for 2019 showed that the ECB is still predicting its own failure: inflation is expected to be just 1.7 per cent in 2019, which is — in Draghi’s own words — out of line with the ECB’s target of ‘just below 2 per cent’. Such a forecast for 2019 is dovish because it signals that the ECB expects monetary policy to be accommodative for a long time.

Third, Draghi made clear that rates will stay low even after the asset purchases have stopped. This statement was meant to reassure markets that the exit from QE would not be followed by a quick rise in interest rates.

Today’s ECB decision was a compromise between hawks and doves, but overall the doves narrowly won. But the ECB has set itself up for criticism if and when a recovering oil price drives inflation above the ECB’s current projections. Will it start tightening monetary policy in that case? That would risk snuffing out the eurozone’s fragile recovery.

Christian Odendahl is chief economist at the Centre for European Reform.

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